Thom Hogan and Nikon Full Frame
Posted: Sat Nov 04, 2006 4:02 pm
Ok its a dull, wet and miserable day (in Sydney), so here are some interesting comments from Thom:
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TOF guy wrote:
> Are you saying that you know from a reliable source that an Nikon
> FF camera with the above features will be available in 2007?
I'm aware of at least three 35FF prototypes that are in test. Moreover, I believe that if Nikon doesn't introduce a 35FF body in 2007, they will have either:
1. Chosen to be a 4/3 like entity: sticking to APS forever.
2. Ceded so much high-end market share to multiple competitors that it will be difficult to recover the top end of the market.
So, no, I don't know for sure. But I'm pretty sure I'm right. And I've been saying the same thing for a long, long time now: for Nikon to survive as one of the two leading DSLR brands, they need to protect the full turf that encompasses, from US$399 APS bodies to US$?999 35FF bodies. Canon is there. Sony will be there. Pentax will probably be there. Olympus won't be there and has selected a strategy that can only succeed as minor player, primarily centered around a customer base that purchases based upon size (not a good long-term strategy, IMHO, as the current APS DSLRs are bigger than they have to be). The people I talk to privately at Nikon are aware of all this. I believe that the primary reason they haven't moved faster at 35FF is that they believed (correctly) that the initial market volume would be at the low end and that they couldn't hold the product margin they wanted at with a 35FF sensor.
--
Thom Hogan
author, Nikon Field Guide & Nikon Flash Guide
editor, Nikon DSLR Report
author, Complete Guides: D50, D70, D100, D200, D1 series, D2h, D2x, S2 Pro
http://www.bythom.com
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http://forums.dpreview.com/forums/read.asp?forum=1021&message=20699613
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TOF guy wrote:
> Are you saying that you know from a reliable source that an Nikon
> FF camera with the above features will be available in 2007?
I'm aware of at least three 35FF prototypes that are in test. Moreover, I believe that if Nikon doesn't introduce a 35FF body in 2007, they will have either:
1. Chosen to be a 4/3 like entity: sticking to APS forever.
2. Ceded so much high-end market share to multiple competitors that it will be difficult to recover the top end of the market.
So, no, I don't know for sure. But I'm pretty sure I'm right. And I've been saying the same thing for a long, long time now: for Nikon to survive as one of the two leading DSLR brands, they need to protect the full turf that encompasses, from US$399 APS bodies to US$?999 35FF bodies. Canon is there. Sony will be there. Pentax will probably be there. Olympus won't be there and has selected a strategy that can only succeed as minor player, primarily centered around a customer base that purchases based upon size (not a good long-term strategy, IMHO, as the current APS DSLRs are bigger than they have to be). The people I talk to privately at Nikon are aware of all this. I believe that the primary reason they haven't moved faster at 35FF is that they believed (correctly) that the initial market volume would be at the low end and that they couldn't hold the product margin they wanted at with a 35FF sensor.
--
Thom Hogan
author, Nikon Field Guide & Nikon Flash Guide
editor, Nikon DSLR Report
author, Complete Guides: D50, D70, D100, D200, D1 series, D2h, D2x, S2 Pro
http://www.bythom.com
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http://forums.dpreview.com/forums/read.asp?forum=1021&message=20699613