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From our friend THOM (http://www.bythom.com/):

Two Surprising Numbers from Nikon

Nikon has posted their financial results through the third fiscal quarter (ended 31 Dec 2005). Two numbers stuck out: Coolpix shipments are up, with the company revising their full year estimates to 7 million units (up from 6.4 million); meanwhile DSLR unit numbers are down, with Nikon now saying that they'll only sell 1.4 million units instead of 1.6 million for the current fiscal year (ends 31 March 2006). The culprit for the DSLR unit volume seems to be the Christmas quarter, where year-to-year sales actually went down slightly. I wonder how much of that was the pending D200 scaring away D70s sales?

For those that are interested, here's my current best guess at how the DSLR marketplace ended for 2005:

Canon 1.85m units 48% share
Nikon 1.33m 35%
Other 0.67m 17%
Total 3.85m 100%

Nikon executives forecast that total DSLR unit volume worldwide will be about 5m units in 2006 (i.e., the market is expected to grow by just over 30%). Overall, just looking at the imaging division operating numbers (cameras and lenses), things looked like this for Nikon during the first three quarters of the last two fiscal years:

2005 2006
Sales 266.7b Yen 314.1b Yen
Income 8.9b 29.5b

Given the constant downward pricing pressures in digital cameras and the number of competitors trying to grab market share, Nikon seems to be weathering the storm and has a healthy operating profit in this business.

anubis wrote:Canon 1.85m units 48% share
Nikon 1.33m 35%
Other 0.67m 17%
Total 3.85m 100%

These numbers (if accurate) make interesting reading.

No suprise to see Canon out in front - The size of the company, the marketing budget, all those guys you see at the footy with big grey lenses I'm actually suprised they didn't crack 50%..

The "Other" total is the interesting bit. Of those you would imagine a fair percentage is Fuji (virtually a Nikon offshoot) so I guess the Nikkor lens division is happy and busy. The remainder puzzle me though. The others don't really offer the lenses for the serious SLR user. Uninformed purchases? Pose value? Conned by a salesman?

If however Sony and Samsung get serious about DSLR over the next 10 years, that "Other" column could really eat into the two main players.

johndec wrote:The others don't really offer the lenses for the serious SLR user.

I don't know about that, Pentax sure as hell makes some very fine optics.

all those guys you see at the footy with big grey lenses I'm actually suprised they didn't crack 50%..

those lenses are because of a brilliant marketing coup in the mid 1980's

Canon spent millions when they brought out the EOS range getting newspapers and magazine photographers to switch over to Canon.

Anyone with a stock of Nikon cameras and lenses was offered amazing trade-ins and deals to switch to Canon Once they switched they were locked into the Canon system and could not afford to switch back.

then every time people saw "Pro" photographers they saw Canon lenses.

MCWB wrote:

johndec wrote:The others don't really offer the lenses for the serious SLR user.

I don't know about that, Pentax sure as hell makes some very fine optics.

Trent, I was thinking about Pentax as a bit of an exception during my original post but didn't want to drone on too much about this and that brand so I probably overgeneralised

Will there be a Pentax brand in 10 years or will it be swallowed up by Samsung like Sony has done to KM?

Dug wrote:those lenses are because of a brilliant marketing coup in the mid 1980's

Canon spent millions when they brought out the EOS range getting newspapers and magazine photographers to switch over to Canon.

I was aware of this, hence my refererence to marketing budgets in my original post. Bloody good idea actually, it's paid off for them 10 times over

johndec wrote:

Dug wrote:those lenses are because of a brilliant marketing coup in the mid 1980's

Canon spent millions when they brought out the EOS range getting newspapers and magazine photographers to switch over to Canon.

I was aware of this, hence my refererence to marketing budgets in my original post. Bloody good idea actually, it's paid off for them 10 times over

Something I didn't know, but damn clever, some Advertising and Marketing dude got one big Bonus!

Bloody good idea actually, it's paid off for them 10 times over

At least !!! One of the best marketing jobs ever.

I'm most surprised by their incremental increase in sales, with corresponding magnitude increase in 'income' (=profit?).
But these are still only Thom's predictions, unless and until we get official word from Nikon - they may still be wrong.

I had no idea the Coolpix were selling in such volume. Whenever I hear/read of P&S digicams, Coolpix certainly doesn't rank #1 in discussions.

As for Canon - I'm honestly surprised they don't have a larger market share. I would have thought 60-70% would be fairly realistic. Anyway, they're a passing fad. It's already been 15 years, in another decade or so, they're due to change the EF lens mount... as historical evidence would suggest. No really, I'm looking forward to the latest 1 series replacement. 66MP sounds a bit alright.

johndec wrote:Will there be a Pentax brand in 10 years or will it be swallowed up by Samsung like Sony has done to KM?

You might be on the money there I think. Time will tell I suppose, but either way (as with the KM system), it should still be a viable system for years to come.

Guys, what interests me is what NIKONs strategy is regarding their Sensors given that SONY are now a direct competitor (or will be in the lower end).....

My bets on a FUJI/LBCAST hybrid.

Dug wrote:

Bloody good idea actually, it's paid off for them 10 times over

At least !!! One of the best marketing jobs ever.

not just marketing though, at least canon (if i'm not mistaken) don't have the piss poor global shortages of popular product that nikon seem to....it's enough to make one switch camps