AFAICT, Adobe has already obtained the SDK and rejected its use. The SDK requires license agreements and use of Nikon libraries. You can be sure that both the license and the libraries will restrict, prohibit any 3rd party application from besting what Capture does.
I own Breeze Browser, by Chris Breeze. It's a very cool app, but doesn't have the raw utilities for Nikon that it does for Canon. Chris refuses to use Nikon's SDK and apparently has decided not to put a lot of effort into reverse engineering the file. Since the SDK is free, it doesn't take much to figure that it's so restrictive, that nobody will use it seriously.
In Nikon's statement, it is pretty clear that they consider the NEF file to be their property, not the photographer's. They put in the encryption to "protect" the photographer.... I have serious heartburn with both of those ideas.
The file is mine and I don't need a nanny. I'll make my own mistakes, thank you very much, Mr. Nikon-san....
BTW, they mention that the d50 files will also be encrypted, but make no mention of the d70s nor the firmware update for the d70. Dunno if that means anything though.
The bottom line is both good and bad. Nikon responded more quickly than I anticipated, meaning that the heat is very intense. That's good. The bad part is that they did not say that they would not sue Adobe or any other 3rd party software vendor that reverse engineered the file.
So, we're no better off today than we were yesterday.....
I hope this doesn't drag out for months. I don't have that much time before I need to make a decision.