Thom Hogan's 2006 Predictions

[birddog114]

See what are you going to get this year?
http://www.bythom.com/2006predictions.htm

[Heath Bennett]

Thanks Thanh. I think the D2h/s is ripe for the improving.

[birddog114]

HB,
I'm waiting for the D3x in 2007 not the D3H/s

[Oneputt]

Very interesting, but even though it is Thom's educated guess, it is still a guess. Who knows?

[Steffen]

HB,
I'm waiting for the D3x in 2007 not the D3H/s

I'm more likely to wait for the D3x to come out and then get the D3H second-hand

Cheers
Steffen.

[Steffen]

Looks like Thom didn't see the Zeiss lenses coming...

Cheers
Steffen.

[Grev]

I want many new stuff to be released so I can get a 2nd hand D2X or something...

And oh, he didn't predict KM's collapse...

[Heath Bennett]

HB,
I'm waiting for the D3x in 2007 not the D3H/s

Unless they change the name of the series, to something like, well;

D2xs mark II

[Nnnnsic]

And oh, he didn't predict KM's collapse...

Yes he did.

Well, so much as he saw Sony essentially taking them.

First:

But 2006 is the year of new entrants. Sony (piggybacking off KonicaMinolta)

Followed by:

Sony gets it wrong. I see four likely possibilities, all of which would be the wrong camera. (1) An R1 like entry but with a KonicaMinolta mount. (2) Something specified and priced lower than the KM D5. (3) A rebadged D5. (4) A completely new homebrewed consumer design, but with a KM mount. #1 is wrong because either it or the R1 loses. #3 is wrong because it essentially kills KM, which kills Sony's future in DSLRs (unless they buy KM's camera division). #4 is wrong because it's a first time DSLR design and it'll miss key features and/or performance. Thus, I'll go with #2, which will still prove to be wrong, because it'll hurt the R1 and KM and not be low enough priced to keep Nikon and Canon from lowering prices and defending territory. What Sony should do is aim at the 20D/D200 level, I think. I don't think you can sneak into the DSLR market from the bottom; you won't get the true prosumers, who really do care about systems they can grow with. So 12mp, 3-5 fps, well-appointed design (PC Sync, wired remotes, etc.), and a state-of-the-art autofocus system. Show that you're serious by putting out a 24-105mm lens for the mount that's as good or better than what's on the R1. Find a whistle you ring bells over (wireless flash, etc.). The R1 will hold the low end for now. KM will love it that you're not killing them quickly, and the true consumer Sony DSLR then comes in 2007.