NIKON EXPECT 30% INCREASE IN DSLR SALES -> FOCUS ENTRY LE

[anubis]

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... kcaI1sbEMM

Interesting marketshare numbers quite close to Thoms predictions..... i.e. Canon 45+ Nikon 30+ etc...

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Nikon Forecasts 30% Rise in Its Digital SLR Shipments (Update1)


March 20 (Bloomberg) -- Nikon Corp., the world's sixth- biggest digital camera maker, expects shipments of models with interchangeable lenses to rise 30 percent next year on lower- priced models.

Shipments of digital single-lens reflex cameras, geared for professionals and hobbyists, will gain to more than 1.8 million units in the year ending March 2007, from the expected 1.4 million this year, Makoto Kimura, managing director for Nikon's imaging products unit, said in an interview.

Nikon is betting consumer demand for SLRs will make up for a price slump in the $13 billion digital camera industry that drove out Konica Minolta Holdings Inc. and Kyocera Corp. Nikon, which gets 55 percent of sales from cameras and lenses, competes with Canon Inc. in the professional market, where the two companies have an 80 percent market share.

``The driver will be the entry-level models,'' priced around $1000, Kimura said. ``We want to make them smaller and lighter to attract new users, as well as make them more affordable.''

Digital SLR cameras use interchangeable lenses to capture images that are then stored on a computer chip. More consumers are switching to digital formats as new models are priced lower, offer sharper images and have less shutter delay when taking pictures.

Entry-Level Strategy

``We're reviewing our marketing and pricing strategy for entry-level models'' because this is the area that's going to grow, Kimura said. Nikon on Feb. 6 cut this year's digital SLR shipment target by 200,000 units on lower-than-expected sales of its ``D50'' entry-level model.

Nikon also offers the ``D200,'' priced at about 180,000 yen ($1551) for advanced amateurs, and the ``D2X'' for professionals, which sells at about 460,000 yen, according to shopping Web site kakaku.com.

``If they have the right product strategy, they can achieve 30 percent to 40 percent growth in digital SLR shipments,'' because they have the technology and brand, said Tetsuya Wadaki, a Tokyo-based analyst at Nomura Holdings Inc. He has a ``neutral'' rating on the company's shares.

Nikon shares rose 1.6 percent to 1,891 yen as of the 11 a.m. midday break on the Tokyo Stock Exchange.

Staying Ahead

To fend off competition from Canon and newer players such as Sony Corp. and Matsushita Electric Industrial Co., Kimura said he will spend more on research and development, without providing figures. He aims to raise the ratio of R&D against sales and offer new models more quickly.

In the year ended March 2005, Nikon's research costs in the camera segment rose 28 percent to 13.2 billion yen, making up for 40 percent of the overall research expenses.

``Up-front investment in digital SLRs will go on for the next three years'' because this is the area of growth, Kimura said. ``In addition, the lifecycle of an entry-level digital SLR has now come down to about 1.5 years, compared with 3 to 5 years for analog SLRs.''

Nikon's camera unit contributes the biggest share of operating profit. The company also is the world's second-largest maker of steppers, machines that print circuitry onto silicon wafers.

New Rivals

Consumer electronics makers Sony and Matsushita have said they aim to expand in the digital SLR market. Sony, which at one time only offered compact models, bought Konica Minolta's SLR business this year. Matsushita and camera maker Olympus Corp. are jointly developing digital SLRs, as well as Pentax Corp. and South Korea's Samsung Techwin Co.

``Prices of digital SLRs will fall'' as more companies aim to tap consumers who want to take photographs like professionals, Kimura said. ``Body prices of digital SLRs will fall below 50,000 yen'' as early as 2008, he said.

To offset price declines, Nikon is shaving costs by using the same parts for different models and procuring in bigger volumes, Kimura said.

Nikon is also improving efficiency at factories by replacing old equipment. The company makes entry-level digital SLRs in Thailand, and professional models in Sendai, northern Japan.

Digital SLR shipments will gain 33 percent to 1.4 million this year, Nikon said on Feb. 6. That outpaces the 26 percent growth to 7 million units for compact models, which have less features and no detachable lens.

Global Growth

Global shipments of digital SLRs will gain 23 percent to 4.68 million units in 2006 from a year earlier, Camera & Imaging Products Association said on Jan. 31.

Nikon on Feb. 6 raised its annual operating profit target for its camera segment by 29 percent to 33 billion yen, which compares with 16.8 billion yen a year earlier.

Canon, world's biggest-digital camera maker, expects shipments of digital SLRs to rise 16 percent to 2.2 million this year from 2005. The maker of EOS aims for a profit margin of its camera unit to rise to 21.7 percent this year from 19.8 percent a year earlier.

[Alpha_7]

Thanks for the information, it's an interesting read.

[Grev]

Good stats, wondering how Nikon will do in the future, I hope they do well.

[birddog114]

Good stats + Good reading,

But Nikon does not or haven't fix the problems of the D200 + 18-200VR as yet! Lot of talk about this lately.

They're still struggle with the BGLOD!!!!!!!!

[Matt. K]

Now here's a bit of cleverly inserted crap!

In addition, the lifecycle of an entry-level digital SLR has now come down to about 1.5 years, compared with 3 to 5 years for analog SLRs.''

Most photographers I know kept their SLRs for 15 to 20 years. It sounds like a ploy to accustom us to changing our rigs every 1.5 years. I am not biting on this one.

[birddog114]

Now here's a bit of cleverly inserted crap!

In addition, the lifecycle of an entry-level digital SLR has now come down to about 1.5 years, compared with 3 to 5 years for analog SLRs.''

Most photographers I know kept their SLRs for 15 to 20 years. It sounds like a ploy to accustom us to changing our rigs every 1.5 years. I am not biting on this one.

Yes, Matt,
I agreed, perhaps they build something solid as the F3/ F4/ F5.
Then we will have no jobs around

[Aussie Dave]

Now here's a bit of cleverly inserted crap!

In addition, the lifecycle of an entry-level digital SLR has now come down to about 1.5 years, compared with 3 to 5 years for analog SLRs.''

Most photographers I know kept their SLRs for 15 to 20 years. It sounds like a ploy to accustom us to changing our rigs every 1.5 years. I am not biting on this one.

That must be the Nikon "crop-factor" coming into play.

1.5 x 1.5 = 2.25 years, OR;
1.5 x 5 = 7.5 years

Although these figures seem quite unrealistic, I would be inclined to think that the life spans will be far shorter as digital photography, although expensive to setup, is relatively cheap to continue (no film-processing costs etc...). This affords the digital photographer to take many 1000's of images, which may otherwise not be taken with a film camera.

I am sure most, if not all of us, can atest to this fact....

That, and the fact that technology these days is manufactured to be superseded well before it breaks down, will see life spans be much less than their ancestors....IMHO

[Matt. K]

Dave
Whilst I fear you are correct there are many folk for whom an investment of $3000 in a camera is a dream and a once in a liftime purchase. It is a lot of money and the cameras should continue to function for 10 to 15 years regardless of the introduction of new technology. This I doubt they will do.

[gstark]

Now here's a bit of cleverly inserted crap!

In addition, the lifecycle of an entry-level digital SLR has now come down to about 1.5 years, compared with 3 to 5 years for analog SLRs.''

Most photographers I know kept their SLRs for 15 to 20 years. It sounds like a ploy to accustom us to changing our rigs every 1.5 years. I am not biting on this one.

I see this as referring more to the production life cycle, rather than the purchasing life cycle.

For instance, within the 15 - 20 years that you're mentioning, Nikon still released a number of new cameras, most of which were not purchased by most photographers.


The difference today is the internet: people get news of new models far more quickly, and marketing dictates that we must have the latest and greatest new shiny features.

As news of a new model hits the streets, people queue up to buy this new box.

While the F3/FE/F100 were all great cameras, were they ever in as short supply as the D200 or D2X was when it first hit the streets?

[Aussie Dave]

I completely agree Matt, $3000 is a huge amount of money....and I am one of those people. Of course I dream of having a D2X or D200 with 70-200VR lens, but reality says that I may never have either.

The D70 is a magnificent compromise and affords me much enjoyment. Everything else is a "want", not a "need"....

Gary is also correct that marketing in today's age is in everyone's faces and it is only a heartbeat before the newest/bigger/better upgrade or model is released.

There are three types of financial positions (the way I see it), those with money, those with credit and those with little.

The Marketers have the knack of appealing to all of them, but target the first two

[glamy]

Matt,
I think with film people were not expecting an improvement in the picture quality or at least not as big as with every new digital camera. Digital cameras at the moment are a bit like computers, every new one is suposed to be better and although the one we have may be good enough, we still want the new one... I would tend to agree with their projection especially as prices are coming down.
Cheers,
Gerard

[Ivanerrol]

While $ 3000.00 maybe a big outlay, I can remember when a 486 DX 2-66 computer was in excess of $ 3000.00 not so many years ago. I paid nearly $ 4,500.00 + for a Pentium Pro 200 MHz setup. $ 5000.00 + for a 486 laptop.
Prices will come down. accordingly in line with computers IMHO. It maybe in 3 - 4 years, new sensor technology will arrive and make our current generation DSLR's equivalent to 386's.

Maybe Nikon and other manufacturers are priming us to the fact that the current sensors may have a limited life span? or that 60,000 actuations on a 'consumer' grade DSLR maybe its use by factor.

My concern with Nikon is that next year they may do a turn around - announce that DX sensors are redundant - go full size and therefore all DX optimised Lenses become redundent.

As for Film cameras - mine are not 5 years old, with the exception of F100 most are 25 to 30 years old and still work magnifcently.

[daniel_r]

My concern with Nikon is that next year they may do a turn around - announce that DX sensors are redundant - go full size and therefore all DX optimised Lenses become redundent.

I think DX will be around for a while yet, even if only in the consumer end like Canon... especially when:

``The driver will be the entry-level models,'' priced around $1000, Kimura said. ``We want to make them smaller and lighter to attract new users, as well as make them more affordable.''

Lighter, smaller and more affordable is what DX was originally about

[Aussie Dave]

While $ 3000.00 maybe a big outlay, I can remember when a 486 DX 2-66 computer was in excess of $ 3000.00 not so many years ago. I paid nearly $ 4,500.00 + for a Pentium Pro 200 MHz setup. $ 5000.00 + for a 486 laptop.
Prices will come down. accordingly in line with computers IMHO. It maybe in 3 - 4 years, new sensor technology will arrive and make our current generation DSLR's equivalent to 386's.

That is a given.

My concern with Nikon is that next year they may do a turn around - announce that DX sensors are redundant - go full size and therefore all DX optimised Lenses become redundent.

As long as the user has a camera body that accepts the DX lenses, it won't be a concern. I still have MS-DOS on disc and if I want to use it, I just need to get an old PC to run it on. The technology is still around, it is just considerably obsolete (in the scheme of things). I feel the same will apply to DX lenses, if and when it comes to that.

Of course, investment in glass could be considered more costly than my MS-DOS comparison....although I'm sure many people spent tonnes of money on new software 10-15 years ago, that now won't even run on the newest of machines. They always seem to have a clever way of forcing the consumer to upgrade to the latest upgrade, so it will run.

[losfp]

I'm with Gary on this one. Reading it, it sounds like it means that they would refresh models every 1.5 years, compared to 3-5 years for 35mm SLRs.

Thinking about it, that makes sense. Updates to sensor technology, control systems etc happen fairly regularly, whereas the 35mm format is still going to be the 35mm format months down the track I would expect them to announce the new version of the D200, and stop production of the D200 within 2 years, for instance.

The key is the wording - "lifecycle", not "lifespan"!

I'd expect my D70s body to last for years (whether I still own it, or sell it to finance a D200/300/400 etc in the coming years is a different story )

[Ivanerrol]

I have wasted a few hours trying to find the various life spans for CMOS, CCD sensors, dslr LCD displays and shutter and mechanical component cycles.

I have found a post where one character has claimed to have made 570.000 activations on a D100. He claims that he has now a few noisy pixels on the sensor.

The general consensus is that the life of a DSLR was dramatically reduced by one single problem - dropping it.

The other problem I have gleaned is that the cost of training repairers for DSLRs was too much for the average local dealer as the turn over rate in new models meant that constant upgrading is required due to release of new models every few months. This meant that the repairs had to be done at factory outlets.

[gstark]

I have wasted a few hours trying to find the various life spans for CMOS, CCD sensors, dslr LCD displays and shutter and mechanical component cycles.

That sounds like an entirely appropriate description of the process you undertook.

Why would one bother?

Just look to the cameras' designed usage parameters and choose whatever suits your needs.

[Grev]

I completely agree Matt, $3000 is a huge amount of money....and I am one of those people. Of course I dream of having a D2X or D200 with 70-200VR lens, but reality says that I may never have either.

The D70 is a magnificent compromise and affords me much enjoyment. Everything else is a "want", not a "need"....

Gary is also correct that marketing in today's age is in everyone's faces and it is only a heartbeat before the newest/bigger/better upgrade or model is released.

There are three types of financial positions (the way I see it), those with money, those with credit and those with little.

The Marketers have the knack of appealing to all of them, but target the first two

I really think that it's good to have new, bigger and better models out as soon as possible, even though it is bad for the consumers, it is very good for the competition and just a good impact on technology.

But yeah, lots of things are "wants", not "needs". And there are so many people that aren't really photographers but gearheads that just wants the latest and biggest and fastest... They will never win against technology.

[energypolice]

Thanks for info.

[christiand]

Hi all,

I am getting the feeling that like computers digital cameras including Nikon D-something DSLRs are approaching or have already arrived at the short lived life cycle of todays reality.
I have seen the mentioning of refurbished D50s
Someone is telling us to replace or upgrade the OS in the PC very frequently including upgrading the PC
I don't like the way how things appear to be going.
Do you replace your TV or HIFI system every 1 to 5 years ?
Do you replace your car that frequently ?
I have an "old" Minolta XGM (25 years old) which still works well
Does this result in the consequence that lifespan versus lifecycle unequals availability of spare sparts when repairs may become necessary ?
I just hope that my extended warranty takes care of this.
Scary thoughts, scary business ...

My 20 cents,
CD