Thom Hogan and Nikon Full Frame

[anubis]

Ok its a dull, wet and miserable day (in Sydney), so here are some interesting comments from Thom:



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TOF guy wrote:
> Are you saying that you know from a reliable source that an Nikon
> FF camera with the above features will be available in 2007?

I'm aware of at least three 35FF prototypes that are in test. Moreover, I believe that if Nikon doesn't introduce a 35FF body in 2007, they will have either:

1. Chosen to be a 4/3 like entity: sticking to APS forever.

2. Ceded so much high-end market share to multiple competitors that it will be difficult to recover the top end of the market.

So, no, I don't know for sure. But I'm pretty sure I'm right. And I've been saying the same thing for a long, long time now: for Nikon to survive as one of the two leading DSLR brands, they need to protect the full turf that encompasses, from US$399 APS bodies to US$?999 35FF bodies. Canon is there. Sony will be there. Pentax will probably be there. Olympus won't be there and has selected a strategy that can only succeed as minor player, primarily centered around a customer base that purchases based upon size (not a good long-term strategy, IMHO, as the current APS DSLRs are bigger than they have to be). The people I talk to privately at Nikon are aware of all this. I believe that the primary reason they haven't moved faster at 35FF is that they believed (correctly) that the initial market volume would be at the low end and that they couldn't hold the product margin they wanted at with a 35FF sensor.

--
Thom Hogan
author, Nikon Field Guide & Nikon Flash Guide
editor, Nikon DSLR Report
author, Complete Guides: D50, D70, D100, D200, D1 series, D2h, D2x, S2 Pro
http://www.bythom.com

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http://forums.dpreview.com/forums/read.asp?forum=1021&message=20699613

[MHD]

sounds like speculation to me...

Nikon knows what Nikon is doing, they are a successfull company that is raking in the Mula and they have some very clever people who are paid to make those descisions...

[Killakoala]

Or they could continue business as usual.

[Nnnnsic]

Agreed. Especially in regards to R&D... compare this to a lot of Canon products where it takes them 2 product cycles to come up with a product that works as well as a Nikon product does.

The 5D is built like crap and while the 1DsMk2 isn't, each of them suffer from the same poorly designed focus system that feels more like it's been ripped out of an APS-sensor than designed for the FF-sensor.

While Canon already have the FF market (aside from them, it's Horseman with a Nikon-mount FF sensor), I'm not sure if Sony will go there. They don't have the lenses to do it, I'd have thought. I'd imagine their lenses are more DX based for cheapness, though I'm not sure. Pentax might go there, but Pentax seem like they're competing with Olympus in the low-end spectrum more directly than needing to compete in the high-end market.

[sirhc55]

Anything that is not based on fact must be speculation. But, if we did not have speculation life would be pretty damn boring

[sirhc55]

Konica/Minolta had a stable of approximately 30 lenses that are compatible with 35mm SLR (not DT series for digital) so it is quite possible that Sony will invest in FF (I predict it will be crap). Olympus have dedicated to the 3/4 system so I guess that they will not be going the FF way.

There may be an outsider in Fuji

[marcotrov]

I think I'm glad I made my decision quite a few months back to only buy quality FF nikon or Sigma lenses apart from my much loved 12-24 F/4
cheers
marco

[Nnnnsic]

See Chris, I think if Nikon and Fuji actually worked together, they'd produce some brilliant results. The Fuji sensors are designed very well, but the rest of the camera is usually lacking compared to what Nikon release in the same field.

[anubis]

Yes, isn't it interesting that Fuji and Nikon are owned by the same "holding" company....

[obzelite]

it makes sence as technology progresses that the sensor would progress back to FF.

What we have now is a purely the solution that is most cost effective, bringing out a D3X or D300 in a year and a bit would need to see some technological advances to see ppl give up perfectly good cameras, and FF would be a significant step and would drive demand.

[gstark]

Did nobody notice (or consider) Thom's statement (speculation, of course) that Sony were going to be producing a FF camera?

Leigh, as Chris says, Sony has a great range of FF lenses from the Minolta fleet, but like Chris, I am dubious as to whetehr Sony has the engineering clout to make a good FF camera. They're a merketing company, after all.

However ...

If Sony is to make a FF DSLR, then they (obviously) need to have a FF sensor, and Sony make their own sensors.

And Sony, as a manufacturer of DSLR sensors, also sell those sensors to TP clients, including Nikon and Pentax.

[sirhc55]

Shoot me down if I’m wrong but any digital camera evolves around the sensor. With Sony now in the dslr market I smell a fish when it comes to them letting go of technology to help the opposition.

Nikon should fire up their LBCAST technology as I am a firm believer that their best cameras to date are the D2H and s as far as sensors are concerned.

Nikon could also tie up with Kodak as per Kodak using Nikon bodies in the past

[Killakoala]

Who makes the CCD for the Hubble DST? I wouldn't mind that technology in a DSLR

[sirhc55]

Or the QUEST

[Nnnnsic]

Chris, I'd take Fuji development over Kodak development in regards to people using Nikon equipment. Kodak can make some good sensors, but they seem to have high-noise problems... whereas Fuji's don't seem to evolve past the 12>6 mark, they've got some genius sensor designs.

[sirhc55]

Chris, I'd take Fuji development over Kodak development in regards to people using Nikon equipment. Kodak can make some good sensors, but they seem to have high-noise problems... whereas Fuji's don't seem to evolve past the 12>6 mark, they've got some genius sensor designs.

Very true

[Big V]

The hubble ccd operates at minus 81 degrees, so you wont be getting these in your DSLR anytime soon. As a side note, the hubble generates 4 gigs of data every day!!!

[sirhc55]

The hubble ccd operates at minus 81 degrees, so you wont be getting these in your DSLR anytime soon. As a side note, the hubble generates 4 gigs of data every day!!!

Crikey - that’s nothing - some members of this forum would do that in a morning at the zoo

[obzelite]

they need to point that sucker at the moon and show us the landing site.

[Gordon]

they need to point that sucker at the moon and show us the landing site.

It wouldn't show it, the Moon is too far away. Also they don't point it at the Sun, Moon or Earth.

Also, the CCD in the HST is monochrome, just like the 4K X 4K CCD we use at work. The only way to get a colour image is to use 3 exposures with different filters. We usually generate 20-30GB of data every night at work too, 4GB is nothing!

[Big V]

Gordon is correct in saying that they normally dont point the hubble at these for imaging but they do point the hubble at the earth, but only at the oceans and this is to make a flat field exposure. They need to do this for calibration reasons and all astronomers using ccd cameras do the same. Here on earth you either take twilight flats or use a white diffused source of light, the hubble does not have these options, so they use the out of focus oceans and hope there are no straggling ocean liners in the field of view!!!

[Greg B]

Good news that "they" have decided to continue with Hubble too.

[Gordon]

Here's a brief summary of the HST pointing constraints from http://www.pbs.org/deepspace/hubble/diagram.html:

The telescope does not generally observe targets within 50 degrees of the Sun, 15.5 degrees of any illuminated portion of the Earth, 7.6 degrees of the dark limb of the Earth, nor 9 degrees of the Moon. ...

There are exceptions to these rules for HST pointing in certain cases. For instance, the bright Earth is a useful flat-field calibration source. However, there are onboard safety features that cannot be overridden. The most important of these is that the aperture door shown in Fig. 1 will close automatically whenever HST is pointed within 20 degrees of the Sun, in order to prevent direct sunlight from reaching the optics and focal plane.

Objects in the inner solar system, such as Venus or comets near perihelion, are unfortunately difficult or impossible to observe with HST, because of the 50 degree solar limit. When the scientific justification is compelling, observations of Venus and time-critical observations of other solar-system objects lying between 45 degrees and 50 degrees of the Sun may be carried out.

[Onyx]

<sigh> I bet in 2016 there will still be continued speculation of a Nikon FF.

People say they want it, but if that's truly the case they would have moved on to the 5D or 1Ds already.

Nikon + FF = never. <- quote me on that and put it on my tombstone.